Putin’s Position on Ukraine

At his yearly press briefing in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position on Ukraine was that Russian forces were consolidating their positions across most of the frontline in Ukraine, as Western support diminishes, and that there would be no peace until ‘Russia’s goals were met.’ Despite the setbacks and losses-which currently sit at around 8-1 in favour of Ukraine on a daily basis – and the failure of his plans for the initial full-scale invasion in 2022 (anyone remember ‘in three days’??), Putin’s objectives have remained unchanged.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent comments, interpreted by some as a potential groundwork for resolving the conflict, are just restatements of Russia’s ongoing demands. These demands include the ousting of the Zelenskyy administration in favour of a government more agreeable to Russia, the ‘neutralisation’ of Ukraine signifying both an indefinite rejection of NATO membership and a diminution of Ukraine’s military capabilities, a renunciation of Ukrainian national identity by its people, and the acknowledgement of Russia’s effective control over Ukraine’s international and domestic policies, as well as their entire way of life– mirroring the control Russia has asserted in the Ukrainian territories it occupies.

Russian authorities and media consistently reiterate these conditions, and Putin has shown no signs of readiness to negotiate or alter these terms.

Introduction: The conflict in Ukraine, instigated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is not a reactionary measure against NATO but a calculated strategy to expand Russian influence, dismantle Ukraine’s statehood, and weaken NATO. Here I delve into Putin’s motives, Putin’s position and the imperative for robust international support for Ukraine.

Putin’s Misconception of NATO and Expansionist Goals: Contrary to the narrative of defending against NATO, Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was driven by his perception of NATO’s vulnerability and the West’s weakness, giving him an opportunity to reach his long-stated goals. His aim extends beyond defence to the expansion of Russian power, reasserting Russian global dominance, the dismantling of Ukraine’s statehood, and the disintegration of NATO. This was explicitly stated in his annual press conference, where he claimed Russian forces were “improving their position” and peace was contingent on Russia’s complete victory.

Persistent Russian Demands and Diplomatic Misinterpretations: Putin’s goals have remained steadfast, despite the setbacks in the initial invasion and ongoing conflicts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s statements, often misinterpreted as peace gestures, are in fact mere reiterations of Russia’s maximalist demands. These include the dismantling of the Zelenskyy government, the imposition of a pro-Russian regime, and the complete subjugation of Ukraine’s military and identity.

The Flawed Approach of Western Diplomacy: Western hopes for a diplomatic resolution are misplaced.. The ISW’s assessment indicates a dynamic conflict far from stalemate, as does the daily reports I hear and read from various people on the front lines and independent analysts, that rarely make the news. Putin’s 2021 ultimatums to Ukraine and the West, demanding Ukraine’s alignment with Russia, underscore the unfeasibility of diplomatic resolutions.

Putin’s Long-Term Ambitions: Putin’s strategy has evolved from economic and political manipulation to outright military aggression. His long-term objectives include dismantling NATO, reasserting Russia as a global power, and exerting complete control over Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea and parts of Donbas were initial steps in this broader strategy.

Russia’s Future Expansion Plans: Intelligence reports, such as those from German outlet BILD, reveal Russia’s plans for further territorial expansion in Ukraine, indicating a long-term strategy of attrition and political manoeuvring. Putin’s December 2022 statement reaffirms his maximalist objectives, aligning with ongoing Russian military operations and reinforced by his recent statements at his end of 2023 press conference.

The Global Implications of Russia’s Strategy: The Ukrainian Resistance Centre’s exposure of a Russian Academy of Sciences report highlights Russia’s intent to fracture the EU and undermine NATO. This strategy involves exploiting internal divisions within European countries and spreading anti-US sentiments to weaken Western alliances. This is all part of Russia’s disinformation strategies.

The Imperative of Unwavering Support for Ukraine: The end of this war will come not from Putin’s face-saving, but from his realisation that victory is unattainable. The international community’s unwavering support for Ukraine is not just a moral imperative, but a strategic necessity to ensure long-term peace and stability in the region. We are faced with a turning point in history such as we haven’t seen since the world stood up to Hitler. Only by helping Ukraine inflict an unequivocal military defeat on Russia and then assisting in rebuilding a strong, resilient society and military can the West prevent future conflicts and maintain global order.

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Sources:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/weakness-lethal-why-putin-invaded-ukraine-and-how-war-must-end
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-22-2023
www.kyivindependent.com
www.cnn.com