Why the West must support Ukraine
“Ukraine will emerge from this war proud, free and firmly rooted in the West – unless we walk away. But without supplemental funding, we’re rapidly coming to the end of our ability to help Ukraine respond to the urgent operational demands that it has. Putin is banking on the US failing to deliver for Ukraine. We must, we must, we must prove him wrong,” Biden said. ( December, 2023)
Russian officials have declared their intent to occupy and annex more Ukrainian territory, extending beyond the current front lines and the already illegally annexed regions. This aggressive stance raises a critical alarm for NATO and the global community. Should the United States and Europe withdraw military support, the possibility of a Russian conquest of Ukraine transforms from a distant threat to a looming reality. Such a scenario would not only mark a triumph for a battered Russian army but also position it alarmingly close to NATO’s borders, stretching from the Black Sea all the way to the Arctic Ocean. Despite substantial losses inflicted by the Ukrainian military with Western backing, where nearly 90% of the invading Russian forces were decimated according to US intelligence, Russians have not only replenished their manpower but have also accelerated their industrial capabilities, surpassing pre-war levels, setting the stage for a stronger, more experienced military force.
The implications of a Russian victory extend far beyond the battlefield.
A rejuvenated Russian military, battle-hardened and technologically advanced, poses a formidable challenge to NATO’s strategic defense. The United States, in response, would find itself in a precarious position, needing to deploy significant ground forces and stealth aircraft to Eastern Europe. This military expansion, necessary to deter the Russian threat, comes with a substantial financial burden and strategic dilemmas, particularly in balancing commitments between Europe and Asia. The decision to support Ukraine, therefore, transcends mere conflict support; it is a strategic necessity to prevent a stronger, emboldened Russia from altering the global power balance.
Contrasting the situation in Ukraine with that of Afghanistan in 2001 highlights the strategic importance of support for Ukraine.
Unlike Afghanistan, Ukraine boasts a highly industrialized economy, a modern urban landscape, and a well-educated populace. Under President Volodymyr Zelensky’s leadership, the nation is committing to bolstering its military capabilities, including forming joint ventures with Western firms. This approach not only reinforces Ukraine’s military independence but also positions it as a key contributor to NATO’s security and the broader Western economy. A victorious Ukraine, therefore, emerges not as a dependent entity but as a robust, self-reliant ally, instrumental in maintaining the balance of power in Europe and safeguarding democratic values against expansionist threats.
Why we must support Ukraine…
Helping Ukraine liberate its people and territories is the only way to stop Russian atrocities and prevent future ones. The West must rush the military support that Ukraine needs to do so.
Stopping the active conflict will not end the suffering of Ukrainians. As long as Russian forces occupy Ukrainian lands, the terror will continue. It’s clear that a lasting solution requires more than a ceasefire; it necessitates the complete withdrawal of Russian forces and the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty.
The Risks of a Ceasefire
A ceasefire, while ostensibly a step towards peace, may only embolden Russia to fortify its oppressive measures in occupied territories. Putin has consistently expressed his intention to bring Ukraine under Russian control, using any pause in combat to further this agenda.
The West should not try to push Ukraine into a ceasefire or a peace deal for the sake of short-term peace and should instead focus on helping Ukraine win this next phase of the war.
Ukraine can win the next phase of this war if we support Ukraine in a timely and proper manner
Ukraine has won the first phase of this war and has a chance to win the second one. Russia is regrouping for a major assault in Ukraine’s southeast. The outcome of this phase is far from determined, as Russia struggles to amass the combat power necessary to achieve its military objectives in Donbas.
With proper and timely military aid, Ukraine has a chance to win the second phase by pushing back Russia’s offensive and continuing its efforts to liberate Russia-held areas. The Ukrainian government has made clear what military aid it needs from Western leaders. Those needs include tanks, armored vehicles, artillery systems, multi-launch rocket systems, air defense systems, and combat aircraft. Ukraine has shown what they are capable of if only they would be given the right tools.
Time is critical:
the West must deliver the aid Ukraine needs to defeat the next wave of the Russian offensive before that offensive begins.
Half measures or delays in military aid as we are seeing now, will prolong the war, increase Putin’s chances of winning, and lead to more death and destruction. There is a reason that Kremlin allies are praising those countries who are holding back on aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine and the West should seek a permanent end to this conflict, not a temporary respite.
A renewed war once Moscow has rearmed and prepared will likely be far costlier and more dangerous. Demands to reduce the financial burden of supporting Ukraine now simply store up greater risk and expense for the future.
‘There is no path to real peace other than helping Ukraine inflict an unequivocal military defeat on Russia and then helping to rebuild Ukraine into a military and society so strong and resilient that no future Russian leader sees an opportunity like the ones Putin misperceived in 2014 and 2022.’
This path is achievable if the West commits to supporting Ukraine in the prolonged effort likely needed to walk down it. If the West is instead lured by the illusion of some compromise, it may end the pain for now, but only at the cost of much greater pain later. Putin has shown that he views compromise as surrender, and surrender emboldens him to reattack. This war can only end not when Putin feels that he can save face, but rather when he knows that he cannot win.
Former Prime Minister of Australia, Tony Abbott recently said Ukrainians were not just fighting for their own freedom but fighting for “everyone’s freedom”.
“And Ukrainians are fighting and dying so that Americans and Britons and Australians don’t have to fight and die,” he said.
“If America and its allies won’t further help the Ukrainians, who are fighting for everyone’s freedom, not just their own, the question must arise: how much stomach is there for any sustained resistance to a nuclear-armed dictator, with a messianic sense of mission, in Europe, or indeed in Asia, convinced that the decadent West is in terminal decline?”
Or as Churchill put it in a similar turning point of history – this is “the first foretaste of a bitter cup that will be proffered to us year by year unless, by a supreme recovery of our moral health and martial vigour we take our stand for freedom as in the olden time”.
To support the cause and make a difference, write to your leaders asking them to support Ukraine, and consider donating to trusted charities working on the ground. Your contributions can help bring relief and hope to those affected by this conflict. Visit www.passingthrough.net/donating for more information.